The end of the beginning

After a month of travelling the length and breadth of the country, the one-day portion of this Ashes summer - and a supersize one at that - comes to a conclusion at The Oval tomorrow, as England and Australia square up to decide who will walk away with the NatWest Challenge.

Once it's all done and dusted, and the winning captain has held aloft the trophy (assuming there isn't another tie), these two teams can pack away their pyjamas at the bottom of their cricket trunks, because they won't be needed for the foreseeable future. Australia's next one-day series compromises of three matches against Rest of the World in October, while England have even longer to wait - their tour of Pakistan doesn't kick off until November.

Given the protracted nature of this series, the players are unlikely to miss their coloured clothing, but first there is some unfinished business to take care of. The two matches in this series - England's nine-wicket canter at Headingley and Australia's seven-wicket gallop at Lord's - have been by such comfortable margins that making a prediction for the final match is nigh on impossible.

Crucially for England, they have quelled every Australian resurgence before it has had a chance to engulf them and open up old wounds. England were never in the game at Chester-le-Street in the NatWest Series or at Lord's on Sunday, and Australia were favourites when the rain came at Edgbaston. On the flip side, however, Australia were humbled at Headingley, Pietersened at Bristol, watched England recover from 33 for 5 in the NatWest Series final and lost to Bangladesh (they won't be able to shake that memory in a hurry).

Each side, too, has made some important personal statements. Simon Jones at Edgbaston, Steve Harmison at Bristol, Andrew Flintoff at Lord's and Marcus Trescothick at Headingley came up with the goods for England. Ricky Ponting was six inches taller at the press conference on Sunday after his 111 lifted a weight off his shoulders, while Brett Lee is firing on all cylinders at precisely the right time.

But, both sides have their problems as well, and these will decide the outcome at The Oval. England are still struggling to set totals against major nations, under Michael Vaughan they have successfully defended a score only twice against leading countries - India in the 2004 NatWest Challenge and Sri Lanka in the Champions Trophy the same summer. Their top-order collapses need to be rectified sharpish, especially now that the new one-day regulations have been shown to favour the side bowling first. So far, Vikram Solanki, their designated Supersub, has been the only drinks waiter to win an international cap.

While England have lost clumps of early wickets to the new ball, Australia have been allowed flying starts by Jones and Darren Gough. Harmison and Flintoff can only pull situations around so many times and handing the new ball to at least one of them - on an Oval pitch with good pace and carry - would give Vaughan some early control.

Another piece of Australia's jigsaw slotted into place at Lord's - although given recent events they could easy fall straight back out - with Michael Kasprowicz finding his rhythm at last. Jason Gillespie, on the other hand, is an increasingly forlorn figure and Brad Hogg could be a better bet, especially as Andrew Symonds's medium-pace has proved so effective.

It may be one of the oldest clichés in sport, but this match really is a case of whoever plays better on the day will win. You may think that a lot of the talk hasn't changed since the start of the one-day season - that's because it hasn't. For all the point-scoring, hundred-making and wicket-taking we won't really know the shape of these two teams until July 21. One hundred more overs of the preamble to go, then the story of the 2005 summer really starts to get interesting.

England (probable) 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Andrew Strauss, 3 Michael Vaughan (capt), 4 Kevin Pietersen, 5 Andrew Flintoff, 6 Paul Collingwood, 7 Geraint Jones (wk), 8 Ashley Giles, 9 Darren Gough, 10 Simon Jones, 11 Steve Harmison Sub: Vikram Solanki

Australia (probable) 1 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 2 Simon Katich, 3 Ricky Ponting (capt), 4 Damien Martyn, 5 Andrew Symonds, 6 Michael Clarke, 7 Mike Hussey, 8 Brad Hogg, 9 Michael Kasprowicz, 10 Brett Lee, 11 Glenn McGrath Sub: Brad Haddin